Sanjoy Bhattacharya, Partner, Fortuna Capital who advises an hedge fund “Aristos”, write a column for Forbes India. Here are the links of the article he has written till now. It makes for an interesting reading. He is very much focussed on “high ROCE” companies. I have seen him at the Myiris Investor show twice and I quite agreed to the point he made there.
Aristos Fund posted a gain of 7.26% in July compared to 8% gain by Index and the Fund is up by 39.4% year to July.
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Positive signals coming in from the Govt. Divestment, National Unique Identity programme, Direct Tax Code 2009, etc. But reforms on Insurance and Pension still pending. 3G auction pending. These remain the key triggers.
Two Index heavy-weights stocks (RIL and Bharti Airtel) are facing unknown events. Any positive news on these will take markets higher.
FII inflows till date have been around $6-7bn. India can see inflows back to the FY08 levels or even more i.e $15bn-18bn. Big Boy of Dalal Street LIC can’t increase stake in most of the Index companies while most of the FII inflows have been coming through Exchange Traded Funds. Rupee could trade at 42-43 levels by the end of FY10.
Monsoon impact on earnings should be marginally negative. FMCG companies should pass on the increase in prices to the consumer while Autos should continue to benefit from low interest rate regime.
Low base effect will make sure that every headlines sound like “Ahead of expectations”.
Fiscal deficit not a major concern as long as there is an improvement in the global economy. Finance Ministry has considered crude @ $80 while calculating subsidies. However, its diificult to take a call on the outlook for crude oil.
Demand for Real-estate is highly dependent on the IT sector. There is no major recruitment in the IT sector yet so it is difficult to see the demand coming back to 2007 levels in the near future while low interest rates might offset the same to a greater extent. What happens when the interest rates go up remains to be seen.
Impact of global inflation and rollback of stimulus package remains to be seen. This could turn out to be risks on the downside.
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I have tried to find out when did the Ace Investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala first bought a stock and at what (Average) price, adjusted for bonus issue and stock split through the BSE Shareholding pattern and BSE Historical prices data. BSE doesn’t disclose holdings less than 1% so its very likely that he must have bought some stocks earlier and subsequently raised it to more than 1%. In bracket is the multibaggers he is making at CMP (as of today). Considering his acquisition price, the dividend yields on most of his stocks is as high as 20% !!!
Crisil was bought in the March’02 quarter when the stock was trading at an average price of 250 (16 bagger) .
He bought Titan in the June’02 quarter when the stock was trading at 65. At the Myiris.com Investor meet two years ago, Jhunjhunwala mentioned he bought Titan at 40 which means he bought Titan before the June’02 quarter (30 bagger)
RJ first bought Lupin in the Dec’02 quarter when the stock was trading at 60 (15 bagger)
Pantaloon was bought in the Sept’03 quarter when the stock was trading at 22. Rights issue excluded (15 bagger)
Nagarjuna Construction was bought in the March’04 quarter when the stock was trading at 16 (9 bagger)
Praj Industries was bought in the March’04 quarter when the stock was trading at just Rs 4.5 (21 bagger)
Bilcare was bought in the March’04 quarter at 125 (3 bagger)
Geojit BNP Paribas was bought in the March’05 quarter at 7.5 (almost 6 bagger)
Punj Lloyd was bought in the March’06 quarter at 210 (No bagger here)
Karur Vysya Bank was bought in the June’06 quarter at 275 . Rights issue of 1:2 in 2006 excluded. (No bagger here)
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