The four emerging economies including India projected to outshine the rich nations over the next few decades are outdoing the projections made in the BRIC report, said Economist Roopa Purushothaman, who co-authored the report.
“The growth that has come out of the four countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) — over the last few years has been higher than what was projected. They are outdoing our projections,” Purushothaman said.
The report called “Dreaming with BRIC — The Path to 2050” was co-authored by Purushothaman along with other economists of Goldman Sachs four years ago where she was working before joining Kishore Biyani’s Future Capital Holdings.
The report projected that the BRIC economies together could be larger than some of the richest countries today, in terms of US dollar by 2025 and they could account for half the size of G6 countries against 15 per cent at present.
India’s economy could be larger than all but the US and China in 30 years, it stated.
Although the report tends to make projections which were futuristic in nature, there was one near-term projection that China could overtake Germany in four years that is by 2008 as the report was written in 2004. The projection has met with reality a good one year early.
Cyclically the last four years have been good for the BRIC economies, but the real test will come when they are in cyclical downturn and whether they do better than the G6 countries then, she observed.
“But even if two out of the four countries perform according to the projections, it will be considered as a huge success,” Purushothaman added.