GDP Projections

These are some of the projections by foreign brokerages on GDP growth going forward. All the economists of these brokerages were proved wrong when they said “Inflation will remain in double-digits till the year-end”.

JP Morgan: 6.7% for FY09 and 6.2% for FY10.
Citi: 6.8% and 5.5%
Goldman Sachs: 6.7% and 5.8%
Merrill Lynch: 7.5% and 5.8%
Morgan Stanley: 7% and 5.7%

Since all the economists do nothing but guess-estimate, my sense is that growth will be 7%+ in FY09 and 6%+ in FY10 (In no way, I would believe growth will slip below 6%). Remember, at 6% GDP growth, the contraction will be by one-third or 33% from FY08 which I guess should price in all doom and gloom. Who knows growth in Agriculture (neglected by Economists) surprises with better than projected growth. Just as when the index was 21k+, people were shouting 25k and when the tide turned markets went way below “bear case value” which was 9.5k. In short, these so-called experts go with the trend and nothing else. Anyway only time will prove whether these guys were right or wrong.

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