I know I am thinking too far since we have not even completed FY09 which is expected to grow between 6.5-7% and FY10 between 5-6%. Now what is the trigger that will push the economy to grow from 5-6% to 8% ? (Many of you might be thinking I am too optimistic). According to me, there are three factors which will lead to 8% GDP growth.
1) Production of Oil & Gas by RIL and Cairn, RPL refinery will boost India’s GDP by atleast 1% in FY11.
2) Implementation of GST from April 2010 will contribute an additional 1.4% (atleast) to GDP according to Vijay Kelkar, Chairman, 13th Finance Commission.
This is what Nandan Nilekani mentions in his book “Imagining India”
about Mr.Vijay Kelkar,
I have been a long time admirer of his, especially after I saw a remarkable presentation he gave in 2002, titled ‘India: On the Growth Turnpike’, which predicted -with what would turn out to be unusual accuracy -India’s growth trends over the next few years.
3) Recovery in the world economy will also help in accelerating the Indian economy (Assuming 5.5% growth in FY10)
All in all, bulls will be back by the end of 2009 or early 2010!!