2009 Predictions: How they fared!

Its time to look back and see how have my prediction for 2009 fared even though there is still a month left to end the year and anything can happen in the remaining days to come. As things stand today, here is how it turned out:

ICICI Bank is the 3rd best performer in the constituents of Sensex stocks against my expectations of being the top performer.

RIL did announce its plan for acquiring Lyondell-Basell but the acquisition has not yet been completed and RIL may or may not acquire the company.

ICICI did sell a small portion of 3i Infotech in the secondary market but yes neither 3i Infotech nor First Source has been put on the block.

Right now, Sensex is trading at much higher level than my predicted range of 10k-14k.

Rupee is around 46 to the dollar v/s my prediction of 45.

Like equities, commodities has surprised on the upside as well. Crude is trading around $78 as against my expectation of $40-60.

India’s  Q2 GDP came at 7.9% v/s China’s GDP of 8.9%. So my macro prediction turned out to be correct !

PE players have not been active in any of the markets forget about India.

I got my underweight calls on Metals and Real-estate WRONG.

So, overall, I did reasonably well. Not bad but not good either. There is always scope for improvement!


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